The Bank of Thailand maintained its strict monetary policy to control inflation on Wednesday by raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%, the highest level since September 2019.
Recovery in tourism expected
The Thai economy will continue to gain traction with continued recovery in tourism and private consumption thanks to the return of Chinese tourists. Meanwhile, merchandise exports will slow down this year but are expected to improve in 2024 in line with the global economic recovery.
Headline inflation expected to decline
Headline inflation is expected to decline, whereas core inflation remains at a high level with increased risks from demand-side inflationary pressures due to the economic recovery. The Committee deems that a continuing gradual policy normalization is an appropriate course for monetary policy consistent with the growth and inflation outlook, and thus votes to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point at this meeting.
Thai economy is projected to continue growing
The tourism sector will exhibit a faster recovery following the return of Chinese tourists. This will contribute to a more broad-based improvement in employment and income of services sector and self-employed workers, which account a significant share of total employment. Such improvements will support the continued expansion of private consumption.
Overall financial system remains resilient
Commercial banks maintain high levels of capital and loan loss provision. Debt serviceability of households and businesses has improved in line with the economic recovery. However, the financial positions of some SMEs and households remain fragile and sensitive to the rising living costs and debt burden.
The Committee views that financial institutions should continue to press ahead with debt restructuring and deems it important to have targeted measures and sustainable solutions in place for vulnerable groups.
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