In light of inflation woes and continued supply chain issues, the National Retail Federation predicts holiday retail sales during November and December will grow 6% to 8% from 2021. That amount of growth would put sales between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion for the holiday season. 

Last year, holiday sales grew over 13.5% for total spending of $889.3 billion, with the average increase year-over-year at 4.9% over the last 10 years. 

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” says NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

Looking strictly at online and other nonstore sales, NRF expects an increase of 10% to 12% for sales of $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion. It also believes retailers will see a return to more traditional in-store shopping this holiday season. 

“This holiday season cycle is anything but typical,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “NRF’s holiday forecast takes a number of factors into consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”


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